FAQs


2025 Market Analysis

2024 we saw a continued hesitancy about a looming recession in the market. The MMT analysts are bound to their forward rate models without deference to the forced federal deficit spending that higher rates cause. It appears to us that the MMT analysis is currently missing the relationship between consumer debt and fiscal debt, namely the consumers have maintained a healthy debt service to disposable income ratio while the US treasury along with all other major sovereigns, have a very unhealthy debt service to tax receipt balance. Higher for longer interest rates are exacerbating deficit spending more than it is slowing consumer spending. This imbalance will continue to cause asset prices to rise with occasional liquidity air pockets like we had over the summer which allow aggressive but short lived pullbacks and then a resumption of the overall trend.

We see this trend likely continuing through 2025 and thus with the Bitcoin halving we had in April 2024, coupled with these liquidity tailwinds, we expect Bitcoin to continue to be the easy and obvious trade over the next 2-3 quarters. We are currently positioned net long and are waiting for price action to retake the moving averages and confirm trend resumption before layering in more overweight trend trades and structured swing trades as appropriate.